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e-Book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks epub download

e-Book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks epub download

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
ISBN: 0849310873
Pages: 328 pages
Publisher: CRC Press; 1 edition (June 27, 2001)
Language: English
Category: Engineering
Size ePUB: 1437 kb
Size Fb2: 1737 kb
Size DJVU: 1849 kb
Rating: 4.6
Votes: 770
Format: mobi lit txt lrf
Subcategory: Engineering

e-Book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks epub download

by Bilal M. Ayyub



Short Description Structure, format, and main features This book was written with a dual use in mind, as both a self-learning guidebook and as a required.

Structure, format, and main features This book was written with a dual use in mind, as both a self-learning guidebook and as a required textbook for a course. In either case, the text has been designed to achieve important educational objectives of introducing theoretical bases, guidance, and applications of expert-opinion elicitation.

An overview of the uses of expert judgement in engineering applications was given by Ayyub, although this work covers also . The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works.

Fitting closely to the theme of this paper is the work of Booker and McNamara, which presented a very nice description of the process of determining problems for expert judgement, selecting experts and the problems caused by possible biases.

Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions

Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process.

Elicitation of Expert Op. .has been added to your Cart. The book provides a wide view of the topic, as useful background information and context for the subject, before focusing on the details needed by the reader for a variety of practical applications

Elicitation of Expert Op. The book provides a wide view of the topic, as useful background information and context for the subject, before focusing on the details needed by the reader for a variety of practical applications. Properly elicited, analyzed, and interpreted, expert opinion - subjectivity - can be as useful as objective data in decision-making for engineers and managers.

Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.

CRC Press, 27 Haz 2001 - 328 sayfa. CRC Press, 27 Haz 2001 - 328 sayfa.

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Save up to 80% by choosing the eTextbook option for ISBN: 9781420040906, 1420040901. The print version of this textbook is ISBN: 9780849310874, 0849310873. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. You are leaving VitalSource and being redirected to Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks.

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks. Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w. Table of contents. Knowledge and ignorance.

Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. ISBN13:9780849310874. Release Date:June 2001.

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.